The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has issued a preliminary projection, generated by automated models, estimating the number of potential deaths associated with the strong earthquakes in Venezuela to be between 10,000 and 100,000.
This estimate is not a confirmed victim count but rather a probabilistic assessment based on factors such as earthquake magnitude, depth, time of event, population density, and building characteristics in affected areas. Its purpose is to guide emergency responses and international aid logistics.
The USGS model combines seismic, demographic, and building fragility data to calculate probabilities of damage and casualties. These ranges reflect the inherent uncertainty in such projections, serving as a risk warning to prioritize resources and mobilize support quickly, rather than deterministic forecasts.
